OPEC Sees Stronger Global Oil Demand Through 2027 as Market Tightness Supports Crude Prices
Global oil demand is expected to remain resilient through 2026 and 2027, with consumption continuing to outpace supply growth and underpinning crude prices, according to the latest projections contained in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) July 2026 Monthly Oil Market Report.
OPEC forecasts world oil demand to average 105.9 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2026, up from 105.2 mb/d in 2025, before rising further to 107.9 mb/d in 2027.
The outlook indicates that global oil consumption will continue to expand despite economic uncertainties, led primarily by emerging economies, particularly China, India and other non-OECD countries.
According to the report, non-OECD countries will account for the bulk of oil demand growth, with consumption projected to increase from 59.9 mb/d in 2026 to 61.6 mb/d in 2027.
China is expected to remain the world’s second-largest oil consumer after the United States, with demand averaging 17.0 mb/d in 2026 before climbing to 17.3 mb/d in 2027.
India’s oil demand is also forecast to strengthen, rising from 5.7 mb/d in 2026 to 6.1 mb/d in 2027, reflecting continued industrial expansion, urbanisation and transport growth.
In contrast, oil demand in OECD countries is expected to remain broadly flat at around 46 million barrels per day, indicating that future consumption growth will continue to come largely from developing economies.
On the supply side, OPEC projects that production from countries outside the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC)—comprising OPEC and its allies—will continue to increase.
Total non-DoC liquids production, including natural gas liquids and processing gains, is expected to average 54.8 mb/d in 2026 before rising to 55.5 mb/d in 2027.
The United States is expected to remain the largest contributor to non-OPEC supply growth, with liquids production averaging 22.5 mb/d in both 2026 and 2027.
Latin America is also projected to post solid production gains, with output rising to 8.5 mb/d in 2027, supported by increased production from countries including Brazil and Guyana.
Despite growing non-OPEC supplies, OPEC expects demand for crude produced by countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation to remain robust.
The report forecasts demand for DoC crude at 42.3 mb/d in 2026 before increasing to 43.6 mb/d in 2027, representing an additional 1.2 mb/d of crude requirements next year.
This suggests that OPEC and its allies will continue to play a critical role in balancing the global oil market as consumption expands.
World oil demand is projected to average 105.9 mb/d in 2026, while total liquids production is estimated at around 103.1 mb/d in the first quarter, leaving inventories to absorb part of the supply-demand gap.
OPEC’s balance calculations indicate continued stock withdrawals and tighter inventories, a development that generally lends support to international crude prices.
The Organization also revised its demand outlook slightly lower compared with last month’s assessment.
Global oil demand for 2026 was reduced by 200,000 barrels per day, largely reflecting weaker-than-expected consumption during the second quarter, particularly in China, India and other non-OECD economies.
However, OPEC maintained that the revision does not alter the broader outlook of steady demand growth over the medium term.
Energy analysts said the projections reinforce expectations that oil prices will remain supported despite increasing production from the United States and other non-OPEC producers.
For oil-exporting nations such as Nigeria, the forecast offers encouraging prospects for export earnings and fiscal revenues. Continued growth in global crude demand, especially from Asia, is expected to sustain demand for Nigeria’s light sweet crude grades while supporting ongoing upstream investments and production growth.
Analysts, however, cautioned that market sentiment will continue to depend on geopolitical developments, OPEC+ production decisions, global economic growth and the pace of non-OPEC supply expansion, all of which will shape oil prices over the remainder of 2026 and into 2027.
