July 14, 2024
OPEC puts world economic growth at 2.6% for 2023
OIL MARKET: Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq to produce 38.9% of OPEC+ over 40 mb/d in 2024 
– By Alison Godswill

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OPEC puts world economic growth at 2.6% for 2023

By Eyo Nsima

The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC, has estimated the 2023 economic growth at 2.6 per cent.

In its May 2023 Monthly Oil Market Report, MOMR, obtained by The Daily, www.thedaily-ng.com, the organization, stated: “World economic growth is estimated at 3.3% for 2022 and forecast at 2.6% for 2023, both unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The global economy continues to navigate through challenges including high inflation, higher interest rates in the US and the Euro-zone, and high debt levels in many regions.

“The US economic growth forecast for 2023 remains unchanged at 1.2%, following growth of 2.1% for 2022. The Euro-zone’s economic growth forecast for 2023 remains at 0.8%, after growth of 3.5% for 2022. Japan’s economic growth forecast for 2022 remains at 1.0% for both 2022 and 2023. China’s economic growth forecast remains at 5.2% for 2023, compared with 3% for 2022.

“India’s 2022 economic growth estimate is unchanged at 6.7%, and the forecast for 2023 remains at 5.6%. Brazil’s economic growth estimates for 2022 and 2023 are unchanged at 2.9% and 1.0%, respectively. Russia’s growth is also unchanged across both years, with an estimated contraction of 2.1% for 2022 and a smaller forecast contraction of 0.5% for 2023.”

On the global oil demand, OPEC, stated: “The world oil demand estimate for 2022 remains unchanged from last month’s assessment, with a growth of 2.5 mb/d y-o-y. In the OECD, oil demand was adjusted slightly downward in the 4Q22, amid data showing a demand decline in OECD Americas. This was entirely offset by a slight upward revision to the estimation for non-OECD countries.

“For 2023, the forecast for world oil demand growth remains broadly unchanged at 2.3 mb/d, with the OECD projected to grow by almost 0.1 mb/d and the non-OECD expected to grow by about 2.3 mb/d. Within the regions, slight downward adjustments in 1Q23 for the OECD were offset by upward revisions to the non-OECD.”

Also, on liquid supply, it stated: “Non-OPEC liquids supply is estimated to have grown by 1.9 mb/d in 2022, broadly unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The main drivers of liquids supply growth for 2022 were the US, Russia, Canada, Guyana, China and Brazil, while the largest declines were seen in Norway and Thailand.

“For 2023, the forecast for non-OPEC liquids production growth also remained unchanged from last month’s assessment, at 1.4 mb/d, y-o-y. The main drivers of liquids supply growth are expected to be the US, Brazil, Norway, Canada, Kazakhstan and Guyana, while declines are expected primarily in Russia. Uncertainties remain, primarily related to the potential of US shale oil output and unplanned field maintenance in 2023. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids are estimated to have grown by 0.1 mb/d in 2022, to average 5.39 mb/d, and are forecast to grow by 50 tb/d to average 5.44 mb/d in 2023.”

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