OPEC puts 2021 global economic growth forecast at 5.5%
By Eyo Nsima
As oil prices continue to leap, the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC, has forecasted the global economic growth at 5.5 percent in 2021.
In its June 2021 Monthly report, obtained by The Daily, www.thedaily-ng.com, OPEC, stated: “The global economic growth forecast for 2021 remains unchanged at 5.5%, although the forecast continues to be impacted by uncertainties including the spread of COVID-19 variants and the speed of the global vaccine rollouts.
“In addition, sovereign debt levels in many regions, inflationary pressures and central bank responses remain key factors to monitor. US economic growth in 2021 is revised up slightly to stand at 6.4%, following a contraction of 3.5% in 2020.
“The economic growth forecast for the Euro-zone in 2021 is lowered slightly to stand at 4.1%, following a contraction of 6.7% last year. Similarly, Japan’s economic growth forecast is lowered to 2.8% for 2021, following a contraction of 4.7% in 2020.
“After growth of 2.3% in 2020, China’s economic growth forecast in 2021 remains at 8.5%. Given the ongoing COVID-19 related challenges, India’s 2021 economic growth forecast is revised down slightly to 9.5%, following the contraction of 7.0% in 2020. Brazil’s growth forecast for 2021 remains unchanged at 3.0%, following a contraction of 4.1% in 2020. Russia’s forecast for 2021 remains at 3.0%, following a contraction of 3.1% in 2020.”
Also, commenting on oil prospect, it stated: “Global economic recovery has been delayed due to the resurgence of COVID-19 infections and renewed lockdowns in key economies, including the Euro-zone, Japan and India, which kept growth rates low in 1H21. However, the ongoing vaccination efforts, growing share of recovered cases leading to increasing herd immunity, and the easing of lockdown restrictions lend optimism that the pandemic could be contained in the few months to come.
“These developments, combined with broad-based stimulus measures, high savings rates in advanced economies, and pent-up demand following the lockdowns, are expected to add momentum to the economic rebound towards the end of 2Q21. Consumption is forecast to improve, particularly in the contact-intensive sectors, and investment is anticipated to rise, with the stabilization of crude oil markets expected to add further upside in some producer countries, including the US.”
