Africa’s population, energy demand to fuel massive oil, refining and electricity growth by 2050 — OPEC

By Eyo Nsima

Africa is poised to become one of the world’s most important energy growth centres over the next quarter century, with rapid population expansion, accelerating urbanization, rising incomes and increasing industrialization expected to drive significant increases in oil demand, electricity consumption and refining investments across the continent, according to the latest outlook by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

The report presents Africa as a region of enormous long-term opportunity, projecting that its growing population and youthful workforce will underpin strong economic expansion and sustained increases in energy demand through 2050 despite the global push toward energy transition.

Africa to account for one-quarter of global population

According to OPEC, Africa’s demographic expansion will remain the strongest of any region over the coming decades.

By 2050, the continent is expected to account for about one-quarter of the world’s population and an equally significant share of the global working-age population, providing a powerful foundation for long-term economic growth.

The report notes that Africa’s expanding labour force will create one of the world’s largest consumer markets while increasing demand for housing, transportation, manufacturing, electricity, fuels and industrial infrastructure.

Combined with rising urbanization, the demographic boom is expected to reshape Africa’s energy landscape and make the continent one of the fastest-growing energy markets globally.

Urbanization to transform energy consumption

OPEC projects that Africa’s urban population will more than double by 2050 as millions of people migrate to cities in search of economic opportunities.

The continent’s urbanization rate is expected to rise steadily over the outlook period, increasing demand for electricity, cleaner fuels, transportation networks, residential housing and industrial development.

The rapid expansion of cities is also expected to stimulate investment in roads, ports, airports, petrochemicals, manufacturing and power infrastructure.

Energy analysts say urbanization remains one of the strongest drivers of petroleum products consumption, particularly gasoline, diesel, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), aviation fuel and petrochemical feedstocks.

Strong economic growth expected

The report forecasts robust long-term economic expansion across Africa, with several regions expected to record annual real GDP growth rates among the highest globally.

Africa’s overall economic output and GDP per capita are projected to rise significantly between 2020 and 2050 as industrialization, infrastructure development, digitalization and expanding trade support economic transformation.

OPEC notes that sustained economic growth will translate into higher energy consumption across virtually every sector of the economy.

Electricity demand set to surge

One of the report’s strongest messages is the enormous growth expected in Africa’s electricity sector.

Final electricity demand is projected to increase sharply by 2050, driven by residential consumption, commercial activities, manufacturing, mining and expanding transport systems.

Demand growth is expected across all sectors, reflecting increased electrification, improved access to electricity and rising living standards.

To meet this demand, electricity generation from multiple energy sources—including natural gas, hydropower, renewables, coal and oil—is expected to expand substantially over the coming decades.

OPEC notes that achieving universal electricity access while supporting industrial development will require massive investments in power generation, transmission and distribution infrastructure.

Oil demand to remain resilient

Despite global decarbonization efforts, OPEC expects Africa’s oil demand to continue growing strongly through 2050.

Transportation is projected to remain the largest source of oil demand growth, supported by expanding vehicle ownership, freight movement, aviation and maritime transport.

Industrial activities, petrochemicals and other economic sectors are also expected to contribute significantly to increased petroleum consumption.

The report indicates that Africa’s growing population and relatively low per-capita energy consumption provide substantial room for future demand growth compared with more mature energy markets.

Refining sector enters expansion phase

OPEC also projects significant expansion of Africa’s refining industry.

The continent’s refining capacity is expected to increase steadily from its January 2026 base as new projects come on stream between 2026 and 2050.

Between 2026 and 2030, Africa is projected to add around 800,000 barrels per day of new distillation capacity, making it one of the world’s fastest-growing refining regions.

The expansion is expected to be driven by major refinery projects and upgrades across several African countries, reducing dependence on imported refined petroleum products while strengthening regional energy security.

The report projects continued additions to refining capacity beyond 2030, although at a gradually slower pace as demand growth moderates later in the outlook period.

Refinery utilization expected to improve

As refining capacity expands alongside rising oil demand, refinery throughput and utilization rates are also expected to improve.

Higher refinery utilization reflects stronger domestic demand for petroleum products and more efficient use of refining assets across the continent.

Industry experts say improved refinery performance will strengthen fuel security, reduce foreign exchange spent on imports and support the development of petrochemical industries.

Billions of dollars in investment required

Meeting Africa’s long-term energy needs will require substantial investment across the oil, gas and electricity value chains.

OPEC estimates that billions of dollars will be needed for refinery construction, modernization, conversion projects and supporting infrastructure through 2050.

Additional investments will also be required in upstream oil and gas production, pipelines, storage facilities, electricity generation, transmission networks and renewable energy projects.

Analysts say these investments could create millions of jobs, stimulate industrialization and improve economic competitiveness across the continent.

Opportunity for African producers

For major oil-producing countries such as Nigeria, Angola, Algeria, Libya, Egypt and Republic of the Congo, the report reinforces the strategic importance of continued investment in exploration, production, refining and petrochemicals.

The outlook suggests that Africa’s energy future will be driven not only by increasing crude oil production but also by greater value addition through domestic refining, expanding petrochemical industries and wider access to electricity.

As global energy demand shifts increasingly toward developing economies, Africa is expected to emerge as one of the world’s most dynamic energy markets, offering significant opportunities for governments, investors and energy companies willing to invest in the continent’s long-term growth.

OPEC concludes that Africa’s combination of rapid population growth, economic expansion, urbanization and rising energy consumption will ensure that the continent remains a critical pillar of global energy demand and investment for decades to come.