Nigeria faces higher power sector emissions as electricity demand grows, says IEA
Nigeria’s drive to expand electricity supply could lead to higher carbon emissions from the power sector in 2026 unless investment in renewable energy accelerates, according to the latest projections by the International Energy Agency (IEA).
In its Electricity Mid-Year Update 2025, the IEA projected that global carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from electricity generation will increase by more than one per cent in 2026, with Africa among the regions expected to record higher emissions as electricity demand continues to grow.
The report said emissions from electricity generation are expected to increase in most emerging and developing economies this year, reversing the relatively flat global emissions recorded in 2025.
For Nigeria, the outlook reflects the country’s continued dependence on natural gas for grid electricity and diesel-powered generators used by homes and businesses to compensate for inadequate electricity supply.
Gas remains Nigeria’s main power source
Nigeria generates the bulk of its grid electricity from natural gas-fired power plants, while hydroelectric stations account for a smaller share of generation.
However, chronic gas supply constraints, ageing infrastructure and inadequate transmission capacity have limited electricity supply, forcing businesses and households to rely heavily on diesel and petrol generators.
Energy analysts said rising electricity demand, coupled with limited renewable energy deployment, could increase emissions from both grid-connected generation and self-generation.
The IEA attributed the expected rise in global power-sector emissions partly to stronger electricity demand and greater reliance on fossil fuels following disruptions in international energy markets.
The agency noted that the Middle East crisis in the first half of 2026 pushed up natural gas prices, encouraging greater use of coal and oil for electricity generation in several parts of the world.
Pressure on Nigeria’s energy transition
The report comes as Nigeria seeks to balance energy security with its commitment to achieving net-zero emissions by 2060.
The Federal Government has launched several initiatives to expand renewable energy, including solar mini-grids, rural electrification programmes and investments in distributed energy systems.
At the same time, the government continues to promote natural gas as the country’s transition fuel under the “Decade of Gas” initiative.
Industry experts argue that while gas-fired power plants emit less carbon dioxide than coal-fired stations, expanding renewable energy remains essential if Nigeria is to curb emissions while meeting rapidly growing electricity demand.
Diesel generators remain a major challenge
One of Nigeria’s biggest environmental challenges remains its widespread dependence on self-generation.
Millions of households, commercial centres and industries operate petrol and diesel generators because of unreliable grid electricity.
Although these generators account for only a fraction of installed capacity individually, their combined fuel consumption contributes significantly to carbon emissions, air pollution and operating costs.
Analysts said improving grid reliability could substantially reduce emissions by lowering dependence on diesel-powered generation.
Investment needed
The IEA’s outlook underscores the need for increased investment in renewable energy, battery storage, transmission infrastructure and grid modernisation.
Experts believe Nigeria possesses significant potential for solar, hydro, wind and biomass energy, but financing constraints, policy uncertainties and transmission bottlenecks have slowed deployment.
Expanding cleaner electricity sources, they said, would reduce emissions while improving energy security and supporting industrial growth.
Global trend
Despite the projected increase in emissions in 2026, the IEA expects global electricity-related carbon emissions to stabilise in 2027 as renewable energy capacity expands further.
The agency also forecast a decline in the carbon intensity of electricity generation worldwide, reflecting increased reliance on low-emission technologies.
For Nigeria, however, the immediate challenge remains ensuring that efforts to increase electricity generation for more than 200 million people do not come at the expense of its climate commitments.
Energy experts said the country’s long-term success will depend on striking the right balance between expanding access to reliable electricity, utilising its abundant natural gas resources responsibly and accelerating investment in renewable energy to build a cleaner and more resilient power sector.
