China, India lead global rise in power-sector emissions as Africa also records increase in 2026 – IEA
China and India are expected to remain the world’s biggest contributors to rising carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from electricity generation in 2026, as growing power demand drives increased fossil fuel consumption despite continued expansion of renewable energy, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
In its latest Electricity Mid-Year Update 2025, the IEA projected that global CO₂ emissions from electricity generation will rise by more than one per cent in 2026, reaching a new record high after remaining broadly unchanged in 2025.
The report identified China as the largest contributor to the increase in absolute emissions this year, with power-sector emissions forecast to rise by about two per cent.
According to the IEA, the increase is being driven by stronger-than-expected electricity demand and lower-than-anticipated wind power generation, forcing greater reliance on coal-fired and other fossil-fuel power plants.
Although China remains the world’s largest investor in renewable energy, the scale of its electricity demand means fossil fuels continue to play a major role in the country’s power system.
India returns to emissions growth
The report also showed that India, the world’s third-largest electricity producer, is expected to reverse last year’s decline in emissions.
After recording a 3.5 per cent reduction in electricity-related emissions in 2025, India’s emissions are projected to increase by nearly three per cent in 2026, followed by another 1.5 per cent rise in 2027.
The IEA attributed the rebound to rapid economic growth and rising electricity consumption, with coal-fired power stations continuing to meet much of the additional demand.
Southeast Asia emerges as fastest-growing region
Beyond China and India, the agency identified Southeast Asia as one of the fastest-growing sources of electricity-related emissions.
Power-sector emissions across the region are forecast to increase by an average of six per cent annually between 2026 and 2027, largely because rising electricity demand is expected to be met by additional fossil fuel generation.
Rapid industrialisation, urbanisation and growing electricity access are increasing demand across countries including Indonesia, Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand and the Philippines.
Africa joins list of rising emitters
The IEA also projected higher emissions from electricity generation across Africa, alongside increases in Central and South America and Eurasia.
Although the report did not provide a regional percentage for Africa, it said emissions would rise as many developing economies continue to rely on fossil fuels to meet expanding electricity demand.
Across much of the continent, inadequate investment in renewable energy, transmission infrastructure and battery storage has slowed the transition to cleaner electricity systems.
Countries such as South Africa, Nigeria, Egypt and Algeria continue to depend significantly on coal or natural gas for electricity generation, while diesel generators remain widespread in many African economies.
Europe and US buck the trend
While emissions are rising across much of the developing world, the IEA expects advanced economies to continue reducing power-sector emissions.
The European Union is forecast to record the largest decline, with emissions from electricity generation expected to fall by five per cent in 2026 and a further 16 per cent in 2027.
By 2027, emissions from the EU’s electricity sector are expected to be less than half their 2017 level, reflecting rapid expansion of renewable energy, stronger energy efficiency and reduced dependence on coal.
The United States is also expected to reduce electricity-related emissions by about three per cent in 2026, with emissions remaining broadly stable the following year.
Cleaner electricity despite higher emissions
Despite the projected increase in total emissions, the IEA said the world is continuing to produce cleaner electricity on average.
The carbon intensity of global electricity generation is expected to decline from 435 grams of CO₂ per kilowatt-hour in 2025 to 410 grams per kilowatt-hour by 2027, as renewable energy accounts for an increasing share of power generation.
The European Union is expected to lead this transition, reducing the carbon intensity of its electricity system by around 12 per cent annually, while China, India and the United States are also projected to record steady improvements.
Energy demand remains the biggest challenge
The report highlights a growing global challenge: although renewable energy is expanding rapidly, electricity demand is rising even faster in many emerging economies.
As a result, coal, natural gas and oil-fired power plants continue to provide much of the additional electricity needed to support industrialisation, urbanisation and population growth.
The IEA said global electricity-sector emissions are expected to plateau in 2027, provided renewable energy deployment continues to accelerate and current economic trends persist.
However, the agency warned that geopolitical tensions, weather conditions and stronger-than-expected electricity demand could alter that outlook, underscoring the need for faster investment in low-carbon electricity generation and grid infrastructure worldwide.
