OPEC puts global economic growth at 5.5%
By Eyo Nsima
There are indications that the oil market will be boosted as the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC has put the global economic growth at 5.5 percent.
In its May Oil Market Report obtained by The Daily, www.thedaily-ng.com, OPEC stated: “Stimulus measures in the US and accelerating recovery in Asian economies are expected to continue supporting the global economic growth forecast for 2021, now revised up by 0.1 pp to reach 5.5% y-o-y. This comes after a 3.5% y-o-y contraction estimated for the global economy in 2020.
“However, global economic growth for 2021 remains clouded by uncertainties including, but not limited to, the spread of COVID-19 variants and the speed of the global vaccine rollout. In addition, sovereign debt levels in many regions, inflationary pressures and central bank responses are key factors to monitor.
“After a contraction of 3.5% in 2020, US economic growth in 2021 is now expected to reach 6.2%. The economic growth forecast for the Euro-zone in 2021 is lowered to stand at 4.2%, following a contraction of 6.8% last year. Similarly, Japan’s economic growth forecast is lowered to 3.0% for 2021, following a contraction of 4.9% in 2020.
“After growth of 2.3% in 2020, China’s economic growth forecast in 2021 is revised up to 8.5%. Given the ongoing COVID-19 related challenges, India’s 2021 economic growth forecast is revised slightly down to 9.7%, compared to a contraction of 7.0% in 2020. Brazil’s growth forecast for 2021 remains unchanged at 3.0%, after a contraction of 4.1% in 2020. Russia’s economic growth forecast for 2021 remains at 3.0%, after contracting by 3.1% in 2020. World oil demand is assumed to have dropped by 9.5 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from last month’s assessment, now estimated to have reached 90.5 mb/d for the year.”
It also added: “For 2021, world oil demand is expected to increase by 6.0 mb/d, unchanged from last month’s estimate, to average 96.5 mb/d. Slower than anticipated demand in OECD Americas during 1Q21, together with the resurgence of COVID-19 cases in India and Brazil, caused the 1H21 oil demand data to be revised downwards.”