PSCs contribute 32.1% as total output projected at 1.85m bpd
Joint Ventures (JVs) are projected to account for 51.6 per cent of Nigeria’s oil production of 1.845 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2026, according to data from the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC) and the Budget Office of the Federation (BOF).
The detailed assumptions for oil production and taxes for 2022–2026 showed that production-sharing contracts (PSCs) would contribute 592,000 bpd, representing 32.1 per cent, while independent operators are expected to account for 281,000 bpd, or 15.2 per cent.
Marginal field operators are projected to contribute 20,000 bpd, representing 1.1 per cent.
Together, JVs and PSCs are expected to account for 1.544 million bpd, or 83.7 per cent of the country’s projected output.
A breakdown showed that JV production would rise by 232,000 bpd, or 32.2 per cent, from 720,000 bpd in 2025 to 952,000 bpd in 2026.
Conversely, PSC output is projected to decline by 128,000 bpd, or 17.8 per cent, from 720,000 bpd to 592,000 bpd. Independent production is also expected to fall from 330,000 bpd to 281,000 bpd, while marginal field output would drop from 170,000 bpd to 20,000 bpd.
Overall, Nigeria’s projected oil production is expected to fall by 275,000 bpd, or 13 per cent, from 2.12 million bpd in 2025 to 1.845 million bpd in 2026.
