By Eyo Nsima
The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC, has predicted that the global population of Non- the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Non-OECD, would increase by 1.6 billion between 2021 and 2045, from 7.9 billion to 9.5 billion.
The organization, which disclosed this in its latest World oil Outlook, WOO, obtained by The Daily, www.thedaily-ng.com, stated: “The global population is set to increase by 1.6 billion between 2021 and 2045, from 7.9 billion to 9.5 billion. Population growth in the non-OECD region accounts for over 96% of the expected total increase, with the OECD accounting for under 4%.
“The global working-age population (aged between 15 and 64) is anticipated to expand by 870 million throughout the projection period. Overall, the relative share of the global working-age population is set to fall slightly, from 65% in 2021 to 63% in 2045. Urbanization is forecast to expand further in the coming decades, with 66% of the world’s population projected to live in cities by 2045.
“Global GDP is set to increase by 3% p.a. on average over the period 2021–2045. The medium-term economic growth dynamic will be influenced by the outcome of the COVID-19 pandemic, the inflationary trend in connection with financial tightening, and the consequences of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Towards the end of the medium-term period, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth will settle at 3.1%. Within the OECD, economic growth is forecast to average 1.7% per annum (p.a.) for the period 2021–2045.
“Global growth through to 2045, estimated at 3% p.a. on average, will be largely driven by non-OECD countries. These countries are expected to expand by 3.8% p.a., primarily through improving labour productivity and a growing working-age population.
“The global economy in 2045 will be double the size it was in 2021. Based on 2017 purchasing power parity (PPP), global GDP is projected to rise from around $133 trillion in 2021 to almost $270 trillion in 2045.
“China and India alone will account for 37% of global GDP in 2045, whereas the OECD will account for slightly less at 34%. OECD Americas is forecast to remain the region with the highest GDP per capita, followed by OECD Europe and OECD Asia-Pacific.
“The regional grouping of Middle East & Africa (excluding OPEC Member Countries) will still have the lowest GDP per capita and it is expected to be the only region where the average income is less than $10,000 (2017 PPP) in 2045.”
