Africa’s Oil Demand to Nearly Double by 2050 on Population Growth — OPEC
From now to 2050, global primary energy demand is projected to rise from 312 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (mboe/d) to nearly 383 mboe/d, representing an increase of about 23 per cent, with virtually all the growth coming from developing countries, including Africa.
The projection is contained in the 20th edition of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) World Oil Outlook, released in 2026, which included a dedicated assessment of Africa’s long-term energy outlook, demographic trajectory and investment needs.
OPEC expects Africa’s population to increase from just over 1.5 billion in 2025 to nearly 2.5 billion by 2050, driving significant growth in energy demand across the continent.
Speaking at African Energy Week 2026 in Cape Town, the Head of OPEC’s Energy Studies Department, Dr. Abderrezak Benyoucef, said all sectors of Africa’s energy demand are expected to expand through 2050.
He said African oil demand is projected to nearly double from 4.9 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2025 to 9.2 mb/d by 2050, representing an increase of about 88 per cent.
According to him, the growth will be driven primarily by rapid population growth, urbanisation and industrial expansion, with the transport sector accounting for the largest share.
“Transport will drive nearly 60 per cent of the increase in oil demand over the period,” Benyoucef said, adding that petrochemicals, other industrial activities and electricity generation would account for much of the remaining growth.
Africa’s natural gas demand is also projected to double by 2050, while demand for renewables, including hydropower, wind, solar and biomass, is expected to record strong growth.
Renewable energy demand is projected to increase by about four mboe/d over the period, with biomass accounting for the largest share of the increase.
Benyoucef said coal demand would rise only marginally, while nuclear energy would remain limited in Africa’s energy mix.
Globally, total electricity generation is projected to increase from about 32,000 terawatt hours (TWh) in 2025 to around 59,500 TWh by 2050, driven by rising demand from the residential and commercial sectors, industry, transport and data centres.
The largest increase in the global generation mix is expected to come from wind and solar, with their combined generation projected to rise from about 5,400 TWh in 2025 to around 26,000 TWh by 2050.
