Nigeria, Mozambique, Senegal Drive Africa’s LNG Growth in Historic Global Supply Wave

Africa is set to strengthen its position in the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market over the next five years, with Nigeria, Mozambique, Senegal, the Republic of the Congo and Gabon among countries expected to drive the largest wave of LNG export capacity additions in history.

According to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) latest Global LNG Capacity Tracker, about 345 billion cubic metres (bcm) per year of new LNG export capacity is expected to come on stream globally between 2025 and 2030 from projects already under construction, marking the biggest expansion in the history of the LNG industry.

The report said Africa will contribute significantly to the new capacity as governments and investors seek to monetize vast natural gas resources amid rising global demand for cleaner-burning fuels.

The IEA noted that the LNG industry is entering a new investment cycle following an unprecedented surge in final investment decisions (FIDs) since 2019.

Between 2019 and June 2026, more than 450 bcm per year of LNG export capacity reached FID globally, averaging over 55 bcm annually—more than double the pace recorded between 2014 and 2018.

Nigeria leads Africa’s expansion

Nigeria remains Africa’s largest LNG exporter and one of the continent’s biggest contributors to the upcoming supply wave.

The IEA said the long-awaited Nigeria LNG (NLNG) Train 7 project is scheduled to begin production in 2027, adding 10.9 bcm per year (8 million tonnes per annum) of liquefaction capacity.

The expansion is expected to reinforce Nigeria’s position in global LNG trade at a time when Europe, Asia and emerging markets continue to diversify gas supplies.

However, the report also cautioned that Nigeria’s older LNG facilities are expected to experience production declines in the coming years, meaning that new capacity from Train 7 will partly offset falling output from legacy infrastructure rather than translate into equivalent net production growth.

Mozambique returns after years of disruption

One of Africa’s most closely watched energy projects is also back on track.

The Mozambique LNG project, with a planned capacity of 17.5 bcm annually, resumed construction in January 2026 after partners lifted the force majeure declared during the insurgency in northern Mozambique.

The project, which had been suspended between 2021 and 2025 because of security concerns, is now expected to deliver its first LNG cargoes in 2029.

The country is also developing the Coral North Floating LNG project, expected to add another 4.9 bcm annually from 2028.
Together, the two projects are expected to transform Mozambique into one of Africa’s largest LNG exporters over the next decade.

New projects spread across Africa

Beyond Nigeria and Mozambique, several African countries are advancing LNG developments.

The Republic of the Congo has already begun operations at Congo FLNG 2, adding 3.3 bcm annually in 2025.

Senegal entered the LNG exporters’ club through the Greater Tortue Ahmeyim (Tortue FLNG Phase 1) project, which began production in 2025 with a capacity of 3.4 bcm annually.

Meanwhile, Gabon is constructing the Cap Lopez LNG project, expected to start production in 2027 with capacity of 1 bcm annually.
These projects underline Africa’s growing role in global gas supply, particularly as international buyers seek more diversified sources amid geopolitical uncertainty.

US dominates global investments

Despite Africa’s expanding presence, the United States continues to dominate global LNG investment.
According to the IEA, the US accounted for nearly 60 per cent of all LNG project approvals since 2019.

With more than 83 bcm annually of new capacity sanctioned, 2025 became the biggest year on record for LNG investment decisions in the United States.

The momentum has continued into 2026, with three additional US projects—CP2 LNG Phase 2, Commonwealth LNG, and Delfin FLNG 1—reaching final investment decisions by early June, adding another 31 bcm annually.

Qatar ranked second, accounting for about 15 per cent of global LNG project approvals since 2019.

Largest supply wave in history

The IEA expects annual LNG capacity additions to increase steadily over the remainder of the decade.

New liquefaction capacity is projected to rise from around 35 bcm annually in 2025 to a peak of approximately 95 bcm annually by 2028 before easing towards the end of the decade.

The agency described the coming expansion as the largest supply wave ever experienced by the LNG industry.

However, the forecast excludes Russia’s Arctic LNG 2 project, with capacity of 27 bcm annually, which remains constrained by international sanctions, and Qatar’s North Field West expansion because construction has yet to commence.

Geopolitical risks remain

The IEA warned that geopolitical tensions continue to threaten global LNG supply growth.

In March 2026, QatarEnergy declared force majeure after military attacks damaged facilities at the Ras Laffan LNG complex.
Two liquefaction trains with combined capacity of 17.4 bcm annually were severely damaged and could require between three and five years to repair.

The attacks are also expected to delay the start-up of Qatar’s massive North Field East expansion, originally targeted for late 2026.

The agency said future LNG supply growth could also be affected by construction delays, new project approvals, geopolitical developments and changes in market demand.

Implications for Africa

For African gas-producing countries, the coming LNG expansion presents a major opportunity to increase export earnings, attract investment and strengthen their role in global energy markets.

Countries such as Nigeria, Mozambique, Senegal, the Republic of the Congo and Gabon are expected to benefit from growing international demand for LNG, particularly in Europe and Asia, where buyers continue to seek reliable alternatives to pipeline gas and more carbon-intensive fuels.

The expansion could also support domestic economic growth through increased government revenues, job creation and infrastructure development.

However, the IEA noted that Africa’s long-term competitiveness will depend on timely project delivery, improvements in security, supportive regulatory frameworks and sustained upstream investment.

With the global LNG market entering its most significant expansion phase, Africa is poised to become an increasingly important supplier, even as competition intensifies from the United States, Qatar and other major exporting nations.