OPEC puts 2022 global economic growth forecasts at 4.2%
By Eyo Nsima
The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC, has put the global economic growth forecasts for 2022 at 4.2%.
In its September 2021 Oil Market Report, obtained by The Daily, www.thedaily-ng.com, OPEC, stated that some ‘uncertainties such as the spread of COVID-19 variants and pace of vaccine rollouts worldwide, as well as ongoing global supply-chain disruptions’ would prevail during the period.
It also stated: “Additionally, sovereign debt levels in many regions, together with inflationary pressures and central bank responses, remain key factors requiring close monitoring. In the current recovery, the US economy forecasts are unchanged at 6.1% for 2021 and 4.1% for 2022. Euro-zone economic growth remains at 4.7% for 2021 and 3.8% for 2022.
“The forecast for Japan is also unchanged at 2.8% for 2021 and 2.0% in 2022. China’s economy is seen to grow at 8.5% in 2021 and 6% in 2022, in line with the previous month’s assessment. Meanwhile, India’s 2021 growth forecast is revised slightly down to 9%, following a weaker-than-expected recovery in 2Q21, although growth for 2022 remains unchanged at 6.8%.
“Given the strong growth in 2Q21, Brazil’s growth forecast for this year is revised up to 4.7%, while grow in 2022 is unchanged at 2.5%. Russia’s forecast for 2021 is revised up to 3.5%, benefitting from the stabilized oil market, while the forecast for 2022 remains unchanged at 2.5%.”
Also commenting on demand, the organization, stated: “World oil demand growth in 2021 remains unchanged from last month’s assessment, showing growth of 6.0 mb/d despite some offsetting revisions. Oil demand in 3Q21 has proved to be resilient, supported by rising mobility and traveling activities, particularly in the OECD.
“At the same time, the increased risk of COVID-19 cases primarily fuelled by the Delta variant is clouding oil demand prospects going into the final quarter of the year, resulting in downward adjustments to 4Q21 estimates. As a result, 2H21 oil demand has been adjusted slightly lower, partially delaying the oil demand recovery into 1H22.
“Global oil demand in 2021 is now estimated to average 96.7 mb/d. In 2022, oil demand is expected to robustly grow by around 4.2 mb/d, some 0.9 mb/d higher compared to last month’s assessment. Revisions were driven by both the OECD and non-OECD, as the recovery in various fuels is expected to be stronger than anticipated and further supported by a steady economic outlook in all regions. Oil demand in 2022 is now projected to reach 100.8 mb/d, exceeding pre-pandemic levels.”
Commenting on output, it maintained that, “Non-OPEC liquids supply growth in 2021 is revised down by 0.17 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment, due to a downward adjustment of 0.5 mb/d in 3Q21. The revisions are mainly due to outages in North America from a fire on a Mexico’s offshore platform and the disruptions caused by Hurricane Ida. The estimate for North Sea production has also been revised down due to lower-than-expected output in 3Q21, resulting in an annual growth forecast of 0.9 mb/d to average 63.8 mb/d. The main drivers for 2021 supply growth remain to be Canada, Russia, China, the US, Brazil and Norway, with the US expected to see y-o-y growth of only 0.08 mb/d. The non-OPEC supply growth forecast for 2022 is unchanged at 2.9 mb/d, amid offsetting revisions, to average 66.8 mb/d.”
