LNG supply surge to reshape global gas trade, intensify competition among exporters

By Eyo Nsima

A major wave of new liquefied natural gas, LNG, production capacity expected between 2025 and 2030 could fundamentally reshape global gas trade, intensify competition among exporters and give importing countries greater leverage in securing supplies.

The expansion is being driven by a large pipeline of post-final investment decision, FID, projects across North America, the Middle East, Africa, Asia-Pacific and Latin America.

Based on the project schedules, annual liquefaction capacity additions from post-FID projects are expected to rise from around 35 billion cubic metres per year, bcm/y, in 2025 to about 95 bcm/y in 2028, before gradually declining in 2029 and 2030.

The scale of the expansion means the LNG market is entering a period in which supply growth could outpace demand growth in some regions, potentially putting downward pressure on prices and increasing competition for market share.

The United States and Qatar are at the centre of the expansion, while significant additions are also expected from Canada, Mozambique, Nigeria, the United Arab Emirates, Argentina and other emerging LNG producers.

US to strengthen global LNG dominance

The United States is positioned to emerge as the biggest beneficiary of the expansion, with multiple projects under construction or advancing towards production.

Projects listed in the pipeline include CP2 LNG, Golden Pass LNG, Louisiana LNG, Port Arthur LNG and Rio Grande LNG, among others.

The US projects could add more than 200 bcm/y of nameplate capacity across the listed developments, substantially increasing America’s ability to supply Europe, Asia and other LNG-importing markets.

This could strengthen the US position as a flexible supplier and increase competition with traditional exporters such as Qatar, Australia, Russia and Nigeria.

The increased US supply could also deepen the integration of Atlantic and Pacific LNG markets, as cargoes are redirected towards whichever market offers the most attractive netback.

Qatar to defend market leadership

Qatar is also undertaking a major expansion through the North Field.

North Field East has a nameplate capacity of 43.5 bcm/y, while North Field South adds another 21.8 bcm/y.

An additional 21.7 bcm/y is associated with North Field West, which is approved but not currently under construction.

If North Field West progresses, Qatar’s additional capacity would rise substantially, reinforcing its long-term position as one of the world’s lowest-cost and most competitive LNG suppliers.

The expansion will give Qatar greater capacity to compete for long-term contracts in Asia and Europe, while also allowing it to retain flexibility in responding to changing market conditions.

Europe could gain greater bargaining power

One of the major implications of the supply expansion is that LNG-importing countries could gain greater bargaining power.

Europe, which significantly increased its reliance on LNG following disruptions to pipeline gas supplies from Russia, could benefit from increased availability of cargoes from the United States, Qatar, Canada and Africa.

More LNG supply could reduce competition among buyers during periods of normal demand and help moderate spot-market volatility.

However, geopolitical disruptions could still cause sharp price increases if supply routes or major producing regions are affected.

Asia faces stronger competition for LNG

Asia is expected to remain the world’s largest LNG-consuming region, with China, Japan, South Korea and emerging South and Southeast Asian markets competing for supplies.

The new capacity could make it easier for Asian buyers to diversify away from dependence on individual suppliers.

At the same time, the arrival of more flexible US LNG could increase competition between Asian and European buyers for Atlantic Basin cargoes.

This could make shipping costs, seasonal demand and regional price differences increasingly important in determining where LNG cargoes are delivered.

Africa’s role expands, but legacy assets face pressure

Africa is also positioned to contribute significantly to the next phase of global LNG growth.

Mozambique’s Coral North FLNG is scheduled to add 4.9 bcm/y, while Mozambique LNG is expected to contribute another 17.5 bcm/y.

Nigeria’s NLNG Train 7 is expected to add 10.9 bcm/y, equivalent to 8 mtpa, when it comes on stream.

Senegal’s Tortue FLNG Phase 1 has already started production, while Congo FLNG 2 is also listed as operational.

But the outlook presents a paradox for established African producers.

Legacy LNG projects in Nigeria and other mature producing countries are expected to reduce output in coming years, potentially offsetting part of the gains from new projects.

For Nigeria, this makes the timely completion of Train 7 and development of additional gas resources particularly important.

Without new investments to replace declining production, Nigeria risks losing market share even as global LNG demand expands.

More supply could weaken LNG prices

The biggest commercial implication of the capacity buildout could be a period of increased supply competition.

If demand does not expand quickly enough to absorb the new LNG, producers may be forced to compete more aggressively for buyers.

This could place downward pressure on spot LNG prices, reduce producers’ margins and encourage buyers to negotiate more favourable contract terms.

However, the impact will depend heavily on global gas demand, particularly in China, India and other emerging Asian markets.

A stronger-than-expected increase in gas demand could absorb much of the additional LNG and limit the downward pressure on prices.

Long-term contracts may become more competitive

The expansion could also alter the balance between buyers and sellers in long-term LNG contracting.

Importing countries may have greater choice among suppliers and could negotiate more flexible destination clauses, pricing mechanisms and contract durations.

At the same time, producers may seek long-term contracts to secure financing for expensive LNG developments.

This could create a more competitive contracting environment, with buyers increasingly able to compare US, Qatari, Canadian, African and other LNG supplies.

Geopolitics remains a major risk

Despite the enormous planned capacity expansion, the global LNG outlook remains vulnerable to geopolitical disruptions.

The ongoing conflict in the Middle East could affect LNG production, shipping routes and energy infrastructure, particularly around critical waterways.

Any disruption to major producers or shipping corridors could temporarily tighten global supply and cause LNG prices to rise sharply.

Project delays could also reduce the volume of LNG entering the market in individual years.

Conversely, new FIDs or the reactivation of approved but inactive projects such as Qatar’s North Field West could increase supply beyond current projections.

Russia remains constrained by sanctions

Russia’s Arctic LNG 2, with a nameplate capacity of 26.9 bcm/y, illustrates the extent to which geopolitics can affect LNG supply.

Although production has started, the project remains under sanctions.

This means nameplate capacity does not necessarily translate into unrestricted access to global markets, highlighting the difference between theoretical production capacity and commercially available LNG supply.

Shipping and infrastructure become more important

The geographic distribution of new LNG projects will also increase the importance of shipping capacity and regasification infrastructure.

As more cargoes originate from the United States, Qatar, Canada, Mozambique and other producers, the availability and cost of LNG carriers will influence delivered prices.

Importing countries without sufficient regasification capacity may also struggle to benefit fully from the additional supply.

Global LNG trade enters a more competitive era

Overall, the 2025–2030 LNG project pipeline points to a more competitive and geographically diversified global gas market.

The projected increase in annual capacity additions to around 95 bcm/y by 2028 could provide consumers with greater supply options, reduce dependence on individual producers and potentially moderate prices during periods of adequate supply.

For producers, however, the expansion raises the stakes.

Countries such as Nigeria, Australia and Indonesia face the additional challenge of declining output from legacy projects at a time when the United States, Qatar, Mozambique, Canada and other producers are adding new capacity.

The emerging LNG market will therefore be defined not only by who has gas resources, but by who can deliver new projects on schedule, maintain reliable production, secure competitive financing and offer buyers attractive and flexible terms.

For Nigeria, the message is particularly significant: as global LNG supply expands, completing Train 7 may no longer be sufficient to preserve the country’s position in the international LNG market. Additional investments in upstream gas production, processing and liquefaction will be required if Nigeria is to capture a meaningful share of the next phase of global LNG trade.