COUNTDOWN: 132 Days Since the USA-Iran War Began – Global Oil Market
Global Oil Market Stabilises as War Premium Fades, Brent Holds Above $76
By Team Countdown
One hundred and thirty-two days after the outbreak of the United States-Iran war, the global oil market has entered a period of relative stability, with crude prices settling into a narrower trading range as fears of major supply disruptions in the Middle East continue to ease.
Latest market data showed Brent crude, the international benchmark, trading at $76.40 per barrel, up 0.13 per cent, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gained 0.17 per cent to $72.20 per barrel. The OPEC Basket rose by 2.83 per cent to $72.36 per barrel, indicating sustained support for prices despite easing geopolitical tensions.
However, not all crude grades followed the upward trend. Murban crude, a key benchmark from the United Arab Emirates, fell by 2.99 per cent to $71.37 per barrel, while the Indian Basket declined 3.54 per cent to $68.21 per barrel, reflecting regional demand dynamics and changing refinery purchasing patterns.
The oil market has undergone significant shifts since the conflict erupted between Washington and Tehran more than four months ago.
Initially, traders feared that military escalation could disrupt crude exports through the Strait of Hormuz, the strategic waterway through which roughly one-fifth of global oil supplies pass. Those concerns triggered a sharp rally in crude prices as buyers rushed to secure supplies amid fears of shortages.
As the conflict failed to produce prolonged disruptions to oil production or shipping, however, markets gradually adjusted their risk assessments. The geopolitical premium that had pushed prices higher began to moderate, leaving crude prices supported but well below the extreme levels many analysts had initially feared.
The latest trading pattern suggests that the market is now balancing geopolitical concerns against broader economic fundamentals, including global demand, OPEC+ production policy and inventory levels.
Refined petroleum products also reflected mixed sentiment.
Gasoline prices slipped 1.10 per cent to $3.005 per gallon, while heating oil declined 1.11 per cent to $3.532 per gallon, suggesting comfortable product supplies in key consuming markets despite the continued firmness in crude oil prices.
Meanwhile, natural gas prices remained virtually unchanged at $3.013, indicating stability in global gas markets after experiencing heightened volatility during the early stages of the Middle East conflict.
For oil-exporting nations such as Nigeria, the sustained strength in Brent prices above $76 per barrel continues to provide fiscal relief.
Higher international crude prices translate into improved export earnings, stronger government revenues and increased foreign exchange inflows, particularly as Nigeria seeks to strengthen its external reserves and finance its budget.
However, analysts note that the benefits depend largely on Nigeria’s ability to sustain crude oil production and meet its export commitments. Continued production challenges, pipeline vandalism and crude theft could limit the country’s ability to fully capitalise on favourable international prices.
Conversely, higher crude prices continue to pose challenges for fuel-importing economies, where elevated energy costs contribute to inflationary pressures and increase import bills.
Market observers say investors will continue to monitor developments in the Middle East, OPEC+ production decisions and global economic indicators for signals on the next direction of oil prices.
Although the immediate fears surrounding the U.S.-Iran conflict have largely subsided, the region remains a major geopolitical flashpoint, meaning any fresh escalation could quickly reintroduce a significant risk premium into global energy markets.
With Brent crude holding comfortably above $76 per barrel and benchmark prices remaining resilient, the global oil market appears to have transitioned from crisis-driven volatility to a phase where geopolitical risks remain an important—but no longer dominant—driver of price movements.
