By Mohammad Sanusi Barkindo
The dawning of a New Year is usually cause for hope and optimism for the twelve months ahead. In the case of 2022, this outlook correlates with a generally positive trajectory with regard to market fundamentals. While there are some uncertainties, particularly related to mutations of the coronavirus, there are signs that the global economic recovery, supported by the contribution of the ‘Declaration of Cooperation’ Participating Countries to oil market stability, can continue in the year ahead. The global GDP growth forecasts for 2021 and 2022 are 5.5% and 4.2%, respectively.
World oil demand is estimated to have grown 5.7 mb/d in 2021 and to grow by 4.2 mb/d in 2022. Non-OPEC liquids supply growth in 2021 is forecast at 0.7 mb/d y-o-y to average 63.7 mb/d. The non-OPEC supply growth forecast for 2022 remains around 3.0 mb/d, to average 66.7 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production increased by 275 tb/d in November m-o-m to average 27.72 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Opening Remarks of HE Mohammad Sanusi Barkindo, 36th Meeting of the JMMC ©️ 2021 Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 2 Preliminary November data sees total OECD commercial oil stocks declined by 16 mb m-o-m. At 2,721 mb, they were 389 mb lower than the same time one year ago and 221 mb below the 2015-2019 average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose m-o-m by 12 mb and 4 mb, respectively.
Demand for OPEC crude in 2021 stands at 27.8 mb/d, around 4.9 mb/d higher than in 2020. The forecast for demand for OPEC crude in 2022 stands at 28.8 mb/d, around 1.0 mb/d higher than in 2021. The potential implications of large uncertainties on global oil demand and supply during 2022 are highlighted in the scenario analysis and will be further elaborated in the presentation given by the Research Division. Thank you.
– Being the Opening Remarks Mohammad Sanusi Barkindo OPEC Secretary General 24th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting (Videoconference) January 4, 2022
